Find parameters for building urban communities

Using eBird trends and status abundance data, can we find a minimum number of city total checklists required, and a cut off percentage of checklists recorded, such that we can be confident that any species recorded on more than that percentage of checklist is present in the city (given the city has more that the total minimum total checklists recorded within it).

source('../env.R')

taxonomic_mapping = read_csv(filename(TAXONOMY_OUTPUT_DIR, 'taxonomy_mapping.csv'))

Rows: 445 Columns: 8── Column specification ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr (6): species_name, birdlife_common_name, ebird_common_name, ebird_species_fullname, ebird_species_name, jetz_species_name
dbl (2): birdlife_id, ebird_id
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

Find sample size, and percentage of checklists (or percentage of effort) for valid urban communities based on presence test data.

Load abundance data

This data contains the mean and median abundance across three different seasons for each city (breeding, nonbreeding, resident). The data comes from the eBird status and trends data sets and is calculated from all the pixels that occur within a city polygon for each species.

abundance_data = read_csv(filename(EBIRD_WORKING_OUTPUT_DIR, 'ebird_trends_abundance_test_data.csv'))

Rows: 30876 Columns: 13── Column specification ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr  (2): species, city_name
dbl (11): ID, mean_breeding, median_breeding, sd_breeding, mean_nonbreeding, median_nonbreeding, sd_nonbreeding, mean_resident, median_resident, sd_resident, ...
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

head(abundance_data)

These are the species available for our test

test_species = unique(abundance_data$species)
test_species

 [1] "Geopelia humeralis"         "Patagioenas fasciata"       "Macropygia phasianella"     "Patagioenas araucana"       "Columbina passerina"       
 [6] "Columba palumbus"           "Ocyphaps lophotes"          "Zenaida auriculata"         "Streptopelia decaocto"      "Columbina inca"            
[11] "Zenaida macroura"           "Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae"  "Streptopelia orientalis"    "Patagioenas picazuro"       "Columbina picui"           
[16] "Patagioenas flavirostris"   "Streptopelia tranquebarica" "Streptopelia semitorquata"  "Streptopelia capicola"      "Columba livia"             
[21] "Columbina talpacoti"        "Patagioenas squamosa"       "Patagioenas nigrirostris"   "Columba guinea"             "Spilopelia chinensis"      
[26] "Zenaida meloda"             "Patagioenas leucocephala"   "Leptotila verreauxi"        "Zenaida asiatica"           "Treron phoenicopterus"     
[31] "Zenaida aurita"            

Check how these species are mapped from eBird to Birdlife

test_species_mapping = taxonomic_mapping[taxonomic_mapping$ebird_species_fullname %in% test_species,]
test_species_mapping[order(test_species_mapping$ebird_species_fullname),]

Problem species:

• eBird’s Patagioenas fasciata covers the range of Birdlife’s Patagioenas fasciata and Patagioenas albilinea.
• eBird’s Spilopelia chinensis covers the range of Birdlife’s Spilopelia chinensis, Spilopelia suratensis, and Patagioenas albipennis.

birdlife_species_to_keep = append(test_species_mapping$species_name, c('Patagioenas albilinea', 'Spilopelia suratensis', 'Patagioenas albipennis'))

Create regional pool data

This data is created from Birdlife (and some eBird) distrbution data, a species is recorded as occuring in a regional pool when its range polygon intersects with a city polygon.

A set of city names we will use for inspecting data:

inspection_cities = c('Manchester', 'Bogota', 'Los Angeles', 'Jakarta', 'Nairobi', 'Medellín', 'San Jose')

Load data

regional_pool_data_input = read_csv(filename(BIRDLIFE_WORKING_OUTPUT_DIR, 'urban_distributions.csv'))

Rows: 7231 Columns: 6── Column specification ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr (5): species_name, city_name, origin, seasonal, presence
dbl (1): city_id
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

regional_pool_data_input$seasonal = factor(regional_pool_data_input$seasonal, levels = c('Resident', 'Breeding Season', 'Non-breeding Season', 'Passage', ordered = T))
regional_pool_data_input[regional_pool_data_input$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Map taxonomy to eBird

regional_pool_data = regional_pool_data_input %>% 
  filter(species_name %in% birdlife_species_to_keep) %>%
  left_join(test_species_mapping[,c('species_name', 'ebird_species_name')]) %>%
  arrange(seasonal) %>%
  group_by(city_id, city_name, ebird_species_name) %>%
  summarise(seasonal = first(seasonal)) %>%
  arrange(city_id, ebird_species_name)

Joining, by = "species_name"`summarise()` has grouped output by 'city_id', 'city_name'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

Final regional pool data

regional_pool_data[regional_pool_data$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Filter abundance data to regional pools

The abundance data includes a record for every species in every city, even though many of those values will be 0 or NA. Here we filter out those erroneous rows by joining the abundance data to our regional pool data. This will ensure we only have test data (an abundance score) for species that we expect to occur within a city.

abundance_data_regional = left_join(regional_pool_data, abundance_data, by = c('city_id' = 'city_id', 'city_name' = 'city_name', 'ebird_species_name' = 'species'))
abundance_data_regional = abundance_data_regional %>% arrange(city_id) %>% rename(species_name='ebird_species_name') %>%
  select(city_id, city_name, species_name, seasonal, mean_nonbreeding, median_nonbreeding, sd_nonbreeding, mean_breeding, median_breeding, sd_breeding, mean_resident, median_resident, sd_resident)

Our new abundance data:

abundance_data_regional[abundance_data_regional$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Are any species now missing that are abundant?

Check to see if we have filtered out any species that should cause us concern. This list contains all species that have a non-zero abundance but have now been removed from our data (e.g. they do not occur within the regional pool of the city, or more specifically their birdlife/ebird range does not overlap the city vector). We can fix this by seeking alternative ways of defining the regional pools, e.g. by appending the eBird status and trends ranges for a species.

city_id_species_pairs_present = paste(abundance_data_regional$species_name, abundance_data_regional$city_id, sep = '::')
abundance_data %>% 
  filter(mean_breeding > 0 | mean_nonbreeding > 0 | mean_resident > 0) %>% 
  group_by(city_id, species) %>% 
  filter(!(paste(species, city_id, sep = '::') %in% city_id_species_pairs_present)) %>%
  select(city_id, city_name, species, mean_breeding, mean_nonbreeding, mean_resident)

Create urban summary data

Get number of checklists and total effort in each city

urban_checklists = read_csv(filename(EBIRD_WORKING_OUTPUT_DIR, 'urban_checklists.csv'))

Rows: 3542050 Columns: 6── Column specification ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr  (3): checklist_id, locality_id, city_name
dbl  (2): city_id, duration
date (1): obs_date
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

urban_summary = urban_checklists %>% group_by(city_id, city_name) %>% summarise(total_city_checklists = n(), total_city_effort = sum(duration))

`summarise()` has grouped output by 'city_id'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

urban_summary[urban_summary$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Create urban pools

For each of our test species, find the number of checklists and total effort in each city from the eBird raw observational data

ebird_raw = read_csv(filename(EBIRD_WORKING_OUTPUT_DIR, 'urban_columbidae.csv'))

Rows: 2593785 Columns: 8── Column specification ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr (5): observation_count, checklist_id, city_name, species_name, common_name
dbl (3): number_observers, city_id, duration
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

head(ebird_raw)

Mapping of ebird full species name to species binomial

ebird_map_to_species = distinct(taxonomic_mapping[taxonomic_mapping$ebird_species_name %in% test_species,c('ebird_species_name', 'ebird_species_fullname')])
ebird_map_to_species[order(ebird_map_to_species$ebird_species_name),]

Now calculate the total number of checklists each species appears on, and then total effort of those checklists within each city. This gives a single row for each species in each city. Then join the data onto the regional pool data, and the urban summary data.

urban_ebird_columbidae_city_summary = ebird_raw %>% 
  left_join(ebird_map_to_species, by = c('species_name' = 'ebird_species_fullname')) %>% 
  group_by(city_id, city_name, ebird_species_name) %>% 
  summarise(total_presence_checklists = n(), total_presence_effort = sum(duration)) %>%
  filter(ebird_species_name %in% test_species) %>%
  left_join(regional_pool_data, by = c('city_id' = 'city_id', 'city_name' = 'city_name', 'ebird_species_name' = 'ebird_species_name')) %>%
  left_join(urban_summary, by = c('city_id' = 'city_id', 'city_name' = 'city_name')) %>%
  rename(species_name='ebird_species_name') %>%
  arrange(city_id, species_name)

`summarise()` has grouped output by 'city_id', 'city_name'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

NA for seasonal indicates that the species is on an eBird checklist for the city, but not in the birdlife regional pool.

urban_ebird_columbidae_city_summary[urban_ebird_columbidae_city_summary$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

We also want records for each city that could have that pigeon (e.g. in regional pool range) but has no eBird records. Create absence records for all species in the birdlife regional pool data for all cities.

urban_columbidae_absence_records_part1 = left_join(regional_pool_data, urban_summary) %>% rename(species_name='ebird_species_name')

Joining, by = c("city_id", "city_name")

urban_columbidae_absence_records_part1$total_presence_checklists = 0
urban_columbidae_absence_records_part1$total_presence_effort = 0

urban_columbidae_absence_records = urban_columbidae_absence_records_part1[!is.na(urban_columbidae_absence_records_part1$total_city_checklists),]

urban_columbidae_absence_records[urban_columbidae_absence_records$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Append the absence and presence data together, and then deduplicate to ensure only one species per city. Then calculate the percentage of all checklists, and the percentage of total effort in a city for each species.

urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence = rbind(urban_ebird_columbidae_city_summary, urban_columbidae_absence_records) %>%
  group_by(city_id, city_name, species_name, total_city_checklists, total_city_effort, seasonal) %>%
  summarise(total_presence_checklists = max(total_presence_checklists), total_presence_effort = max(total_presence_effort)) %>%
  arrange(city_id, species_name)

`summarise()` has grouped output by 'city_id', 'city_name', 'species_name', 'total_city_checklists', 'total_city_effort'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$percentage_checklists = urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$total_presence_checklists * 100 / urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$total_city_checklists
urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$percentage_effort = urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$total_presence_effort * 100 / urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$total_city_effort

urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence[urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Join all data together

Finally join our our test data result to show predicted abundance, remove any NA abundance as there is insufficent data in these places for a prediction.

columbidae = left_join(urban_columbidae_presence_and_absence, abundance_data, by = c('species_name' = 'species', 'city_id' = 'city_id', 'city_name' = 'city_name'))
columbidae[columbidae$city_name %in% inspection_cities,]

Plot our species pools for each inspection city

plot_city_species = function(city_id) {
  city_row =  urban_summary[urban_summary$city_id == city_id, c('city_name', 'total_city_checklists')]
  
  ggplot(columbidae[columbidae$city_id == city_id,], aes(x = species_name, y = percentage_checklists, fill = seasonal)) + 
    geom_bar(stat = "identity") + 
    geom_text(aes(label = paste('breeding', round(mean_breeding, 1), '\nresident', round(mean_resident, 1)))) + 
    theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 90, vjust = 0.5, hjust=1)) + 
    xlab('Species name') + ylab('% of Checklist present') + 
    facet_wrap(~city_id) + 
    geom_hline(yintercept=5, linetype='dotted', col = 'red') +
    labs(title = paste(city_row$city_name, city_row$total_city_checklists))
}

Here we show the city and total number of checklists. Then for each species plotted against percentage of checklists, the breeding and resident abundance.

plot_city_species(14)

plot_city_species(624)

plot_city_species(1786)

plot_city_species(4830)

plot_city_species(11920)

Predict abundance from percentage of checklists present

Each species is recorded on checklists, within each city we have found the percentage of all checklists within a city that a species is recorded on. A city with a low number of total checklists is likely to have eratic and unreliable values for species percentage of checklists. Here we try to find out what is the minimum number of checklists for a city to have, for percentage of total checklists to map to abundance.

Woodpigeon breeding abundance

ggplot(columbidae[columbidae$species_name == 'Columba palumbus',], aes(y = percentage_checklists, x = mean_breeding, color = log(total_city_checklists))) + geom_jitter() + geom_jitter() + scale_colour_gradient2(
  low = "red",
  mid = "yellow",
  high = "darkgreen",
  midpoint = log(100),
  space = "Lab",
  na.value = "grey50",
  guide = "colourbar",
  aesthetics = "colour",
) + 
xlab('Mean breeding abundance') + ylab('Percentage of city checklists') + 
labs(title = 'Woodpigeon data across all cities', color = 'Log of total\nnumber of\ncity checklists')

Breeding abundance

ggplot(columbidae, aes(y = percentage_checklists, x = sqrt(mean_breeding), color = log(total_city_checklists))) + geom_jitter() + geom_jitter() + scale_colour_gradient2(
  low = "red",
  mid = "yellow",
  high = "darkgreen",
  midpoint = log(100),
  space = "Lab",
  na.value = "grey50",
  guide = "colourbar",
  aesthetics = "colour",
) + geom_smooth() + 
xlab('Sqrt of Mean breeding abundance') + ylab('Percentage of city checklists') + 
labs(title = 'All species data across all cities', color = 'Log of total\nnumber of\ncity checklists')

Outliers, where sqrt of breeding abundance greater than 3.5

columbidae[!is.na(columbidae$mean_breeding) & sqrt(columbidae$mean_breeding) > 3.5,]

Resident abundance

ggplot(columbidae, aes(y = percentage_checklists, x = sqrt(mean_resident), color = log(total_city_checklists))) + geom_jitter() + geom_jitter() + scale_colour_gradient2(
  low = "red",
  mid = "yellow",
  high = "darkgreen",
  midpoint = log(100),
  space = "Lab",
  na.value = "grey50",
  guide = "colourbar",
  aesthetics = "colour",
) + geom_smooth() + 
xlab('Sqrt of Mean resident abundance') + ylab('Percentage of city checklists') + 
labs(title = 'All species data across all cities', color = 'Log of total\nnumber of\ncity checklists')

Outliers, where sqrt of resident abundance greater than 5

columbidae[!is.na(columbidae$mean_resident) & sqrt(columbidae$mean_resident) > 5,]

Create max_abundance parameter

max_abundance is the maximum of breeding, nonbreeding, or resident abundance.

columbidae$max_mean_abundance = apply(columbidae[,c('mean_breeding', 'mean_nonbreeding', 'mean_resident')], 1, max, na.rm = T)

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columbidae$max_mean_abundance[columbidae$max_mean_abundance == -Inf] = NA

Plot that against percentage of checklists, remove outliers where sqrt of max_abundance greater than 5.

ggplot(columbidae[!is.na(columbidae$max_mean_abundance) & sqrt(columbidae$max_mean_abundance) < 5,], aes(y = percentage_checklists, x = sqrt(max_mean_abundance), color = log(total_city_checklists))) + geom_jitter() + geom_jitter() + scale_colour_gradient2(
  low = "red",
  mid = "yellow",
  high = "darkgreen",
  midpoint = log(100),
  space = "Lab",
  na.value = "grey50",
  guide = "colourbar",
  aesthetics = "colour",
) + geom_smooth() + 
xlab('Sqrt of Max mean abundance') + ylab('Percentage of city checklists') + 
labs(title = 'All species data across all cities', subtitle='Sqrt of max mean abundance < 5', color = 'Log of total\nnumber of\ncity checklists')

Create trimmed dataset, removing all species with a sqrt of max_abundance greater than 5.

trimmed_data = columbidae[!is.na(columbidae$max_mean_abundance) & sqrt(columbidae$max_mean_abundance) < 5,]

Test predicting abundance directly.

Here we try to predict abundance from the percentage of checklists a species occurs on. We try to find a cut off for the minimum total number of checklists recorded in a city to improve the prediction. For each test we split the cities 50/50 into training and test data, and run the test 20 times for each cut off.

seeds = c(123, 456, 678, 10, 11, 345, 32, 11, 54, 90, 9999, 1234, 5678, 2323, 9011, 532, 111, 678, 6501, 3)

# min_city_checklists is the minimum number of cities a checklist must have to be included.
# get_model is a function that takes a dataframe subset of `columbidae`, and returns the result of `lm`
# get_actual is a function that returns the expected result of the prediction given a dataframe subset of `columbidae`
get_mean_test_error = function(min_city_checklists, get_model, get_expected) {
  data = trimmed_data[trimmed_data$total_city_checklists >= min_city_checklists,]
  
  result = data.frame()
  
  for(seed in seeds) {
    set.seed(seed)
    train = sample(1:nrow(data), nrow(data)/2)
    test=(-train)
    
    model = get_model(data[train,])
    prediction = predict(model, data[test,])
    
    result = rbind(result, data.frame(prediction = prediction, actual = get_expected(data[test,])))
  }

  sum((result$prediction - result$actual)^2) / nrow(result)
}

min_city_checklists = seq(0, 5000, by=10)

Predict abundance directly

result_abundance = data.frame()

for (min_city_checklist in min_city_checklists) {
  result_abundance = rbind(result_abundance, data.frame(
    min_city_checklist = min_city_checklist,
    mean_test_error = get_mean_test_error(
      min_city_checklist, 
      function(training_data) {lm(max_mean_abundance ~ percentage_checklists, training_data)},
      function(test_data) {test_data$max_mean_abundance})
  ))
}

ggplot(result_abundance, aes(x = min_city_checklist, y = mean_test_error)) + geom_line() +
  xlab('Minimum total number of city checklists') + ylab('Mean test error for all 20 tests') +
  labs(title = 'Predicting max abundance of a species in a city from the percentage of checklists')

Predict square root of abundance

Here we repeat the above test, but instead try to predict the sqrt of max abundance.

result_sqrt_abundance = data.frame()

for (min_city_checklist in min_city_checklists) {
  result_sqrt_abundance = rbind(result_sqrt_abundance, data.frame(
    min_city_checklist = min_city_checklist,
    mean_test_error = get_mean_test_error(
      min_city_checklist, 
      function(training_data) {lm(sqrt(max_mean_abundance) ~ percentage_checklists, training_data)},
      function(test_data) {sqrt(test_data$max_mean_abundance)})
  ))
}

ggplot(result_sqrt_abundance, aes(x = min_city_checklist, y = mean_test_error)) + geom_line() +
  xlab('Minimum total number of city checklists') + ylab('Mean test error for all 20 tests') +
  labs(title = 'Predicting sqrt max abundance from the percentage of checklists')

Test predicting the presence.

Here we try a simpler test of whether a species is present or not. Set present as having whether a species has a max_mean_abundance greater than 0

trimmed_data$nonzero_abundance = trimmed_data$max_mean_abundance > 0

Bin data into 25 bins based on number of total city checklists. Boxplot percentage of checklists based on whether species are present (i.e. max_mean_abundance greater than 0)

trimmed_data$total_city_checklists_bin = cut(trimmed_data$total_city_checklists, breaks = 25, labels = F)
trimmed_data$total_city_checklists_bin = as.factor(trimmed_data$total_city_checklists_bin)
ggplot(trimmed_data, aes(x = total_city_checklists_bin, y = percentage_checklists)) + geom_boxplot() + theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 90, vjust = 0.5, hjust=1)) + facet_wrap(~ nonzero_abundance) + xlab('Total city checklists group') + ylab('Percentage of city checklists') + 
labs(title = 'Boxplot of percentage of city checklists\ngiven whether the species is considered present')

Here we can see that there is a prediction problem with species considered present that have a very low percentage of recorded checklists.

get_true_false_test_results = function(min_city_checklists, df = trimmed_data) {
  data = df[df$total_city_checklists >= min_city_checklists,]
  
  result = data.frame()
  coeeffs = c()
  
  for(seed in seeds) {
    train = sample(1:nrow(data), nrow(data) / 2)
    test=(-train)
    
    model = glm(nonzero_abundance ~ percentage_checklists, "binomial", data[train,])
    prediction = predict(model, data[test,], type = "response")
    
    result = rbind(result, data.frame(actual = data$nonzero_abundance[test], predicted = prediction))
    coeeffs = append(coeeffs, model$coefficients['percentage_checklists'])
  }

  data.frame(
    mean_false_probability = mean(result$predicted[!result$actual]),
    mean_true_probablility = mean(result$predicted[result$actual]),
    percentage_checklists_cutoff = mean(coeeffs),
    min_city_checklists = min_city_checklists
  )
}

Try predicting species presence (i.e. max_mean_abundance > 0) based on the percentage of checklists a species is recorded on. For each run we predict the result in our test data, and then find the mean prediction for true vs false.

result_present = data.frame()

for (min_city_checklist in min_city_checklists) {
  result_present = rbind(result_present, get_true_false_test_results(min_city_checklist))
}

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ggplot(result_present, aes(x = min_city_checklists, y = mean_false_probability)) + geom_line() +
  xlab('Min total city checklists') + ylab('Mean presence probablity, given species absent')

Some results at different minimum total city checklists, the test estimate gives us a percentage of checklists cut off for whether a species is present. However, we can see that the mean probabilty for present remains high for species that are absent.

result_present[result_present$min_city_checklists %in% c(100, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000),]

Which rows are causing prediction problems?

Take a look at those records that are expected present, but have low percentage of checklists recorded. Is there any pattern here?

problem_rows = trimmed_data[trimmed_data$nonzero_abundance & trimmed_data$percentage_checklists < 2.5 & trimmed_data$total_city_checklists > 100,
             c('city_name', 'species_name', 'total_city_checklists', 'mean_breeding', 'median_breeding', 'mean_resident', 'median_resident', 'mean_nonbreeding', 'median_nonbreeding', 'seasonal', 'percentage_checklists', 'city_id')]
problem_rows

Any particular species?

problem_rows %>% group_by(species_name) %>% summarise(
  total_problem_records = n(), 
  mean_mean_breeding = mean(mean_breeding), 
  max_mean_breeding = max(mean_breeding), 
  mean_median_breeding = mean(median_breeding), 
  max_median_breeding = max(median_breeding), 
  mean_mean_nonbreeding = mean(mean_nonbreeding), 
  max_mean_nonbreeding = max(mean_nonbreeding), 
  mean_median_nonbreeding = mean(median_nonbreeding), 
  max_median_nonbreeding = max(median_nonbreeding), 
  mean_mean_resident = mean(mean_resident), 
  max_mean_resident = max(mean_resident), 
  mean_median_resident = mean(median_resident), 
  max_median_resident = max(median_resident)
) %>% arrange(total_problem_records)

Any particular geographical regions?

sf::sf_use_s2(FALSE)
COUNTRY_BOUNDARIES = '/Users/james/Dropbox/PhD/WorldBank_countries_Admin0_10m/WB_countries_Admin0_10m.shp'
world_map = st_simplify(st_read(COUNTRY_BOUNDARIES), dTolerance = 0.02)

Reading layer `WB_countries_Admin0_10m' from data source `/Users/james/Dropbox/PhD/WorldBank_countries_Admin0_10m/WB_countries_Admin0_10m.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
Simple feature collection with 251 features and 52 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension:     XY
Bounding box:  xmin: -180 ymin: -59.47275 xmax: 180 ymax: 83.6341
Geodetic CRS:  WGS 84

Warning: st_simplify does not correctly simplify longitude/latitude data, dTolerance needs to be in decimal degrees

initial_city_selection = st_read(filename(mkdir(GEO_WORKING_OUTPUT_DIR, 'cities'), 'initial_selection.shp'))

Reading layer `initial_selection' from data source `/Users/james/Dropbox/PhD/urban_community_structure_wrk/geo/cities/initial_selection.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
Simple feature collection with 996 features and 4 fields
Geometry type: POLYGON
Dimension:     XY
Bounding box:  xmin: -158.043 ymin: -38.20685 xmax: 174.9891 ymax: 60.3276
Geodetic CRS:  WGS 84

problem_regions = problem_rows %>%
  left_join(initial_city_selection) %>%
  group_by(city_id, city_name) %>%
  summarise(total_problem_records = n(), geom = st_centroid(geometry))

Joining, by = c("city_name", "city_id")Warning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give 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dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude dataWarning: st_centroid does not give correct centroids for longitude/latitude data`summarise()` has grouped output by 'city_id', 'city_name'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

ggplot() +  
  geom_sf(data = world_map, aes(geometry = geometry)) +
  geom_sf(data = problem_regions, aes(geometry = geom, colour = total_problem_records)) + 
  theme(legend.position="bottom") + scale_colour_gradient2(
    low = "darkgreen",
    mid = "yellow",
    high = "red",
    midpoint = 3,
    space = "Lab",
    na.value = "grey50",
    guide = "colourbar",
    aesthetics = "colour",
  )

Try excluding particular problem species

Exclude

• Streptopelia orientalis
• Leptotila verreauxi
• Streptopelia decaocto
• Streptopelia tranquebarica

problem_species_to_exclude = c('Streptopelia orientalis', 'Leptotila verreauxi', 'Streptopelia decaocto', 'Streptopelia tranquebarica')

trimmed_data_with_excluded_species = trimmed_data[!(trimmed_data$species_name %in% problem_species_to_exclude),]

result_present_exclude_species = data.frame()

for (min_city_checklist in min_city_checklists) {
  result_present_exclude_species = rbind(result_present_exclude_species, get_true_false_test_results(min_city_checklist, df = trimmed_data_with_excluded_species))
}

Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurredWarning: 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ggplot(result_present_exclude_species, aes(x = min_city_checklists, y = mean_false_probability)) + geom_line() +
  xlab('Min total city checklists') + ylab('Mean presence probablity, given species absent')

Some results at different minimum total city checklists, the test estimate gives us a percentage of checklists cut off for whether a species is present. However, we can see that the mean probabilty for present remains high for species that are absent.

result_present_exclude_species[result_present_exclude_species$min_city_checklists %in% c(100, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000),]

Try excluding particular regions of the world

Exclude cities in Southern Asia and Central America

problem_species_to_exclude = cities_joined_to_world$city_id[cities_joined_to_world$SUBREGION %in% c('Southern Asia', 'Central America'),]

Error in cities_joined_to_world$city_id[cities_joined_to_world$SUBREGION %in%  : 
  incorrect number of dimensions

trimmed_data_with_excluded_cities = trimmed_data[!(trimmed_data$city_id %in% problem_species_to_exclude),]

result_present_exclude_cities = data.frame()

for (min_city_checklist in min_city_checklists) {
  result_present_exclude_cities = rbind(result_present_exclude_cities, get_true_false_test_results(min_city_checklist, df = trimmed_data_with_excluded_cities))
}

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ggplot(result_present_exclude_cities, aes(x = min_city_checklists, y = mean_false_probability)) + geom_line() +
  xlab('Min total city checklists') + ylab('Mean presence probablity, given species absent')

Some results at different minimum total city checklists, the test estimate gives us a percentage of checklists cut off for whether a species is present. However, we can see that the mean probabilty for present remains high for species that are absent.

result_present_exclude_cities[result_present_exclude_cities$min_city_checklists %in% c(100, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000),]